一种沉浸于文字和诗行深处的宁静、孤独与忧伤，令我想起Tomas Transtromer的几行诗：
静悄悄的房间
家具在月光中看起来准备好猝然爆发
我穿过一片空铠甲的森林
慢慢走进自己
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Friday, August 26, 2011
Andrew Wyeth
"With watercolour, you can pick up the atmosphere, the temperature, the sound of snow shifting through the trees or over the ice of a small pond or against a windowpane. Watercolour perfectly expresses the free side of my nature." - Andrew Wyeth
飓风来临
前两天地震，这几天飓风，很有点圣经里的最后的审判的意思。
我是个怕活不怕死的人，死比活容易多了。所以，在这种大家惊慌失措的时刻，我总是格外镇静。
说是周末下大雨，我从图书馆借来了书。我最感兴趣的是真实的故事，而这故事的主角一定要是特殊材料制成的人，而不是像我这样平常的人。其实，人有多大胆，地有多高产，不是一句胡说八道，而是人类贪娈疯狂的真正天性。
我在看几本书，主要是2000年发生在比利时Antwerp的历史上最大的钻石偷窃案，和1990年发生在波士顿 Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum，至今未破的历史上最大的艺术偷窃案。
还有一本Great Bear of Wall Street Jesse Lauriston Livermore的书。
我要和和这些疯狂下流，却生机勃勃的人一起渡过这个疯狂惊险有趣的夏天。。。
我是个怕活不怕死的人，死比活容易多了。所以，在这种大家惊慌失措的时刻，我总是格外镇静。
说是周末下大雨，我从图书馆借来了书。我最感兴趣的是真实的故事，而这故事的主角一定要是特殊材料制成的人，而不是像我这样平常的人。其实，人有多大胆，地有多高产，不是一句胡说八道，而是人类贪娈疯狂的真正天性。
我在看几本书，主要是2000年发生在比利时Antwerp的历史上最大的钻石偷窃案，和1990年发生在波士顿 Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum，至今未破的历史上最大的艺术偷窃案。
还有一本Great Bear of Wall Street Jesse Lauriston Livermore的书。
我要和和这些疯狂下流，却生机勃勃的人一起渡过这个疯狂惊险有趣的夏天。。。
读书笔记---Diamond history
The history of Antwerp as the World Diamond Center is a very fascinating and long one, too long to tell the whole story, but too marvellous to exclude you completely from it! We would like to give you therefore an insight into this brilliant history.
We shall probably never know when the first diamonds were discovered, but we do know that, from ancient times until the eighteenth century, all the world’s diamonds came from India. From the time of the Roman Empire until the arrival of the first Europeans in India at the beginning of the sixteenth century, trade relations flourished between Europe and Eastern Asia. One of the two principal diamond trade routes passed through Venice.
The city became the most important mercantile republic in the western world. It enjoyed a monopoly of the diamond trade on its way to the main towns of southern Germany up to its final destination in Bruges. Lying as it did at the far end of the trade route, Bruges gradually developed into a flourishing diamond-cutting center and the city’s reputation in this field steadily increased with time. Although Bruges maintained its pre-eminent position up to the end of the fourteenth century, within fifty years it began to decline because of the silting of the Zwin.
The diamond trade, along with Bruge’s many other economic activities, gradually shifted to the city of Antwerp which offered newer and better facilities for communications and exchange.
Antwerp was in the sixteenth century an expanding and flourishing city. By this time Antwerp already played a determining role in the development of diamond-working techniques . It is significant, for example, that Francois I did not call on the diamond cutters of Paris but placed his orders instead with the craftsmen of Antwerp.
Antwerp was at that time the commercial heart of Europe; approximately 40 % of the world trade passed through its port. Naturally the diamond occupied a favoured place. However the northern Netherlands’s growing proportion on its business was acquired by Amsterdam. Antwerp’s decline did not occur overnight and despite internal struggles such as the conflict between the New Guild of Diamond Cutters and the rich merchants, the city’s prestige remained apparently intact up to the middle of the seventeenth century and the diamond trade itself continued to flourish
At the end of the seventeenth century, Amsterdam came to the fore. It was a privileged city that offered religious and civil liberty and, up to the eighteenth century, it came to exercise a near monopoly not only on the diamond industry but also on the trade in diamonds. From then on Amsterdam supplied Antwerp in rough diamonds and, since the Dutch city kept the best stones for its own diamond cutters, Antwerp was obliged to make do with diamonds of inferior quality. Far from being discouraged, the Antwerp craftsmen took advantage of these rather difficult years and managed to transform small and mediocre stones into finely worked gems.
In 1866 the first diamond was discovered in South Africa. This discovery, followed a few years later by that of the Kimberley deposits and the fabulous Kimberley era and the rise of the now-famous De Beers Consolidated Mines Ltd. resulted in large-scale prospecting and mining activities which brought Europe massive supplies of rough diamonds. This massive influx of rough stones following the discoveries in South Africa was instrumental in contributing to the city’s status of Antwerp as the world’s leading diamond centre. Within a few months, this massive influx provided work for thousands of craftsmen , and the swift revival of diamond cutting in Antwerp was further stimulated by an ever-growing demand for gemstones.
The depression of the 1930s hit the diamond trade hard. The cutting shops were sometimes shut down completely for several weeks at a time. The situation remained difficult until the outbreak of the Second World War. In 1939 many Jewish businessmen fled the country and went to the United States, Portugal or England, where more than 500 diamond dealers from Antwerp, continued to meet and to do business.
In an attempt to save as much of the existing diamond stocks as possible from the Germans, the 500 dealers in England transferred the diamonds there. In agreement with the British government, an organisation known as the Correspondence Office for the Diamond Industry was set up to register the diamonds and keep them for the duration of the war. Thanks to this organisation large quantities of diamonds were returned to their owners after the city was liberated and the Antwerp diamond industry got off to a promising start when the war was ended.
We shall probably never know when the first diamonds were discovered, but we do know that, from ancient times until the eighteenth century, all the world’s diamonds came from India. From the time of the Roman Empire until the arrival of the first Europeans in India at the beginning of the sixteenth century, trade relations flourished between Europe and Eastern Asia. One of the two principal diamond trade routes passed through Venice.
The city became the most important mercantile republic in the western world. It enjoyed a monopoly of the diamond trade on its way to the main towns of southern Germany up to its final destination in Bruges. Lying as it did at the far end of the trade route, Bruges gradually developed into a flourishing diamond-cutting center and the city’s reputation in this field steadily increased with time. Although Bruges maintained its pre-eminent position up to the end of the fourteenth century, within fifty years it began to decline because of the silting of the Zwin.
The diamond trade, along with Bruge’s many other economic activities, gradually shifted to the city of Antwerp which offered newer and better facilities for communications and exchange.
Antwerp was in the sixteenth century an expanding and flourishing city. By this time Antwerp already played a determining role in the development of diamond-working techniques . It is significant, for example, that Francois I did not call on the diamond cutters of Paris but placed his orders instead with the craftsmen of Antwerp.
Antwerp was at that time the commercial heart of Europe; approximately 40 % of the world trade passed through its port. Naturally the diamond occupied a favoured place. However the northern Netherlands’s growing proportion on its business was acquired by Amsterdam. Antwerp’s decline did not occur overnight and despite internal struggles such as the conflict between the New Guild of Diamond Cutters and the rich merchants, the city’s prestige remained apparently intact up to the middle of the seventeenth century and the diamond trade itself continued to flourish
At the end of the seventeenth century, Amsterdam came to the fore. It was a privileged city that offered religious and civil liberty and, up to the eighteenth century, it came to exercise a near monopoly not only on the diamond industry but also on the trade in diamonds. From then on Amsterdam supplied Antwerp in rough diamonds and, since the Dutch city kept the best stones for its own diamond cutters, Antwerp was obliged to make do with diamonds of inferior quality. Far from being discouraged, the Antwerp craftsmen took advantage of these rather difficult years and managed to transform small and mediocre stones into finely worked gems.
In 1866 the first diamond was discovered in South Africa. This discovery, followed a few years later by that of the Kimberley deposits and the fabulous Kimberley era and the rise of the now-famous De Beers Consolidated Mines Ltd. resulted in large-scale prospecting and mining activities which brought Europe massive supplies of rough diamonds. This massive influx of rough stones following the discoveries in South Africa was instrumental in contributing to the city’s status of Antwerp as the world’s leading diamond centre. Within a few months, this massive influx provided work for thousands of craftsmen , and the swift revival of diamond cutting in Antwerp was further stimulated by an ever-growing demand for gemstones.
The depression of the 1930s hit the diamond trade hard. The cutting shops were sometimes shut down completely for several weeks at a time. The situation remained difficult until the outbreak of the Second World War. In 1939 many Jewish businessmen fled the country and went to the United States, Portugal or England, where more than 500 diamond dealers from Antwerp, continued to meet and to do business.
In an attempt to save as much of the existing diamond stocks as possible from the Germans, the 500 dealers in England transferred the diamonds there. In agreement with the British government, an organisation known as the Correspondence Office for the Diamond Industry was set up to register the diamonds and keep them for the duration of the war. Thanks to this organisation large quantities of diamonds were returned to their owners after the city was liberated and the Antwerp diamond industry got off to a promising start when the war was ended.
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Bachmann也读书
其实，我喜欢看Bachmann讲演。我喜欢她雄赳赳的高扬斗志，因为我自己是个消极颓废的人，所以特别欣赏干劲冲天的女人。我自己是个内向的人，极不愿意在公众面前说三道四，所以看见那些滔滔不绝，高腔大嗓的女人，就很有兴趣想去研究她内在的动力。每每听到她自信的开口成河，而于我都是胡说八道的浑话时，总是不禁地想：Where is come from?
今天，看报纸说，Bachmann很爱读书。每当她去海边休假时，总是“When I go on vacation and I lay on the beach, I bring Von Mises.”
嘿嘿，难怪我总是觉得这人走火入魔了呢。谁在海边读Von Mises？
谁是Von Mises呢？
路德维希·冯·米塞斯（Ludwig von Mises, 1881年9月29日－1973年10月10日），知名的经济学家，现代自由意志主义运动的主要影响人，也是促长古典自由主义复苏的学者。他还被誉为是“奥地利经济学派的院长”。
他在经济学领域撰写了很多有关以下两种问题的著作：
1.货币经济和通货膨胀
2.政府控制的经济体制和自由贸易之间的差异
换句话说：米塞斯的基本点有其二：
第一：金本位。米塞斯主张对于货币的需求纯粹是出自于它能用以购买其他货物的功能而产生的，而非为了货币本身的目的，也因此任何在没有黄金支撑下对于货币供给的扩张都会导致商业周期（Business cycle）。
第二：主张社会主义在经济上必然会失败，因为经济计算问题（economic calculation problem）注定了社会主义的政府永远无法正确的计算复杂万分的经济体系，由于失去了价格机制，社会主义政府根本无从得知市场需求的情报，而随之而来的必然是计划的失败和经济的彻底崩溃。
先不说米塞斯的理论对错吧，我不相信任何一个经济学家发现了经济发展的真正规律。所有的经济学家只是根据经济发展的现象，试图找出一种理论来解释。
一个有某种坚强信念的人其实根本不应该当总统。总统更像一名工程师，维护国家系统正常的旋转。我自己是工程师，工程师的任务是，找出系统最主要的毛病，用各种手段解决调和，使之运行最优化。
所以，我相信一个好总统不能是一个极端的人，而是要有清晰的目标，深刻的洞察力，面对现状，解决问题。
今天，看报纸说，Bachmann很爱读书。每当她去海边休假时，总是“When I go on vacation and I lay on the beach, I bring Von Mises.”
嘿嘿，难怪我总是觉得这人走火入魔了呢。谁在海边读Von Mises？
谁是Von Mises呢？
路德维希·冯·米塞斯（Ludwig von Mises, 1881年9月29日－1973年10月10日），知名的经济学家，现代自由意志主义运动的主要影响人，也是促长古典自由主义复苏的学者。他还被誉为是“奥地利经济学派的院长”。
他在经济学领域撰写了很多有关以下两种问题的著作：
1.货币经济和通货膨胀
2.政府控制的经济体制和自由贸易之间的差异
换句话说：米塞斯的基本点有其二：
第一：金本位。米塞斯主张对于货币的需求纯粹是出自于它能用以购买其他货物的功能而产生的，而非为了货币本身的目的，也因此任何在没有黄金支撑下对于货币供给的扩张都会导致商业周期（Business cycle）。
第二：主张社会主义在经济上必然会失败，因为经济计算问题（economic calculation problem）注定了社会主义的政府永远无法正确的计算复杂万分的经济体系，由于失去了价格机制，社会主义政府根本无从得知市场需求的情报，而随之而来的必然是计划的失败和经济的彻底崩溃。
先不说米塞斯的理论对错吧，我不相信任何一个经济学家发现了经济发展的真正规律。所有的经济学家只是根据经济发展的现象，试图找出一种理论来解释。
一个有某种坚强信念的人其实根本不应该当总统。总统更像一名工程师，维护国家系统正常的旋转。我自己是工程师，工程师的任务是，找出系统最主要的毛病，用各种手段解决调和，使之运行最优化。
所以，我相信一个好总统不能是一个极端的人，而是要有清晰的目标，深刻的洞察力，面对现状，解决问题。
Friday, August 19, 2011
gulee教导（4）
Thank you for sharing your experience! It's always a good idea to sell when you have a loss, because no one can predict future, it's only in hindsight we see a bottom or top. It's this hope of tomorrow's reversal/bottom/top, which always came too late, that kills most traders when they should but hesitate to take the small loss. "First loss is always your best loss!"
Even you sold at the bottom, so what? You have demonstrated discipline by taking actions instead of waiting on hope, you will begin to trust yourself more and you will trade/invest with more confidence, and all you have lost will come back to you many folds! Self-trust and confidence just like discipline are critical in trading.
As I mentioned before trading well by following rules with discipline, not trading profit or loss, should be the standard we use to evaluate ourselves and our trades, because we have no control of how much market is willing to give us, but we do have control of how much to lose.
Our mental state and emotions distort our perceptions, subsequently our judgements and actions, so when you are in a stressful situation, such as job loss, depression, or hospitalization of loved ones, you should liquidate all your positions or buy insurance (puts options) to protect your long term investment. Don't trade with real money until you are in the right mental state. There're always plenty of opportunities to make money in the market, and the market will always be here when you feel better and come back, I promise.
Even you sold at the bottom, so what? You have demonstrated discipline by taking actions instead of waiting on hope, you will begin to trust yourself more and you will trade/invest with more confidence, and all you have lost will come back to you many folds! Self-trust and confidence just like discipline are critical in trading.
As I mentioned before trading well by following rules with discipline, not trading profit or loss, should be the standard we use to evaluate ourselves and our trades, because we have no control of how much market is willing to give us, but we do have control of how much to lose.
Our mental state and emotions distort our perceptions, subsequently our judgements and actions, so when you are in a stressful situation, such as job loss, depression, or hospitalization of loved ones, you should liquidate all your positions or buy insurance (puts options) to protect your long term investment. Don't trade with real money until you are in the right mental state. There're always plenty of opportunities to make money in the market, and the market will always be here when you feel better and come back, I promise.
gulee教导（3）
I have a simple suggestion to you, but whether you have the discipline to do it or not is totally up to you. Here's what you should do:
Next time you watch the charts, find an entry (for example you see a trade on Daily chart around 11 AM) and feel the urge to get in, DO NOT! Resist the urge and leave the computer or shut it down and walk out, go fishing, give your wife a foot massage, or whatever. After one or two hours or any time before market closes, turn your computer on and check the charts, if you saw your trade earlier on a Daily chart, now I want you to look at 20 minutes charts, if you see a pull back AFTER the time you saw your trade (around 11 AM), then you wait, as soon as it turns around or may have already turned around to go your way as your originally entry (price should have broken the trend line you draw on the pull back on 20 min chart), you get in right there. You wait for the next day to get in if price never broke trend line of the pull back on 20 min chart before close today.
After you get in, you only need to check your stock 5-10 minutes before market closes each day (not earlier, not at the open). You must resist the urge to watch market or your stock every hour or during the day. You leave it alone as long as price is above your entry price, or you MUST have the discipline to exit if price fell below your entry price before market closes (not during the day).
If you can do this, particularly if you wait to do a trade only when it aligns with the general market direction (long when general market like DOW, NASDAQ, SP are up; short when market is down), you will win a lot more often than you lose. If your stock is just leaving Bollinger Band as you enter on Daily chart or your trade direction is also with Weekly chart direction and sector/industry direction, you will almost be certain to make money on this trade. If you do this in Nov-Mar and resist the urge to take profit by sitting tight for days and weeks, your proift will higher than you expect.
Before you trade real money, you probably need to paper trade it for a while.
To illustrate my points here's a real example on OII down trade/shorting/puts at 1 PM on 8/18. (I am not recommending this stock, just for illustration purpose)
Weekly chart: price testing 20 MA resistance and 50 MA support but failing now;
Daily chart: gap down and indicate a down trade;
So you move to 21 min. chart: it gapped down at open and pulled back (up) to its 200 MA resistance around $37.3, then around 1 PM price reversed down again to $37 which broke the trendline on the up pull back, you get in right here at round $37!
Next time you watch the charts, find an entry (for example you see a trade on Daily chart around 11 AM) and feel the urge to get in, DO NOT! Resist the urge and leave the computer or shut it down and walk out, go fishing, give your wife a foot massage, or whatever. After one or two hours or any time before market closes, turn your computer on and check the charts, if you saw your trade earlier on a Daily chart, now I want you to look at 20 minutes charts, if you see a pull back AFTER the time you saw your trade (around 11 AM), then you wait, as soon as it turns around or may have already turned around to go your way as your originally entry (price should have broken the trend line you draw on the pull back on 20 min chart), you get in right there. You wait for the next day to get in if price never broke trend line of the pull back on 20 min chart before close today.
After you get in, you only need to check your stock 5-10 minutes before market closes each day (not earlier, not at the open). You must resist the urge to watch market or your stock every hour or during the day. You leave it alone as long as price is above your entry price, or you MUST have the discipline to exit if price fell below your entry price before market closes (not during the day).
If you can do this, particularly if you wait to do a trade only when it aligns with the general market direction (long when general market like DOW, NASDAQ, SP are up; short when market is down), you will win a lot more often than you lose. If your stock is just leaving Bollinger Band as you enter on Daily chart or your trade direction is also with Weekly chart direction and sector/industry direction, you will almost be certain to make money on this trade. If you do this in Nov-Mar and resist the urge to take profit by sitting tight for days and weeks, your proift will higher than you expect.
Before you trade real money, you probably need to paper trade it for a while.
To illustrate my points here's a real example on OII down trade/shorting/puts at 1 PM on 8/18. (I am not recommending this stock, just for illustration purpose)
Weekly chart: price testing 20 MA resistance and 50 MA support but failing now;
Daily chart: gap down and indicate a down trade;
So you move to 21 min. chart: it gapped down at open and pulled back (up) to its 200 MA resistance around $37.3, then around 1 PM price reversed down again to $37 which broke the trendline on the up pull back, you get in right here at round $37!
gulee教导（2）
keep doing what you are doing, you are on the right track. Anyone can become a successful trader and investor if he/she works hard, trust him/herself, and think on his/her own feet – most importantly has discipline and patience to practice and learn every single day (I am not kidding)! Paper trading is essential for practicing your skills even when you are very good at making money. Don't you think Michael Jorden and Tiger Woods made their "practice" at real tournaments or outside them? They practice ten times more outside real competition, it's the same about paper trading.
In three years you will be amazed how much you have grown. The reality is three years later we are all three years older whether we have chosen today to pursue our dreams or not. For those who did choose to they will someday see what the other side looks like; for those who failed to choose, they will never know. God bless!
In three years you will be amazed how much you have grown. The reality is three years later we are all three years older whether we have chosen today to pursue our dreams or not. For those who did choose to they will someday see what the other side looks like; for those who failed to choose, they will never know. God bless!
gulee教导（1）
The story is absolutely real and true. A few years ago one of my friends who know what I do asked me about how to get out of debt and make money trading. To help him out I gave him a list of steps to follow to get rid of debt within a few years. This is exactly the same list my mentor gave to us some time ago. I never used it myself because I don't have any debt and my mortgages have been paid off too. To inspire my friend to embark on a difficult journey to debt free living and possibly financial freedom, I shared with him my own experience and my mentor’s with a few facts I saw first hand - my mentor once made $2 million dollars profit in one single day (true story). But to my surprise my friend thought I was crazy, so I stopped telling people about my mentor and my trading. Most time I am just listening without saying a word when people around me talk about stock market and their investments.
If you think this story over, you will realize as I did that we all see things within our own belief structure we developed over our lifetime, but that belief structure has many blind spots that distort our perceptions and prevent us from seeing many life's possibilities if those possibilities don’t exist in our belief structure. Just think about your beliefs about America before you arrived here for the first time. How many things we would have never believed possible are indeed real and true right in front of our eyes! Making $1 million dollars in a year is impossible in my friend’s belief system, so making $2 million in one single day is of course insane to him! Yet it's a fact and is real, because I was there to witness it that day!
Then I realized that trading is exactly the same. We all see market differently based on our unique belief structure about how market works – not how it really works. Based on our own unique beliefs each of us “saw” the market differently with mental bias we are not even aware of. This is why at every second of every day there's a battle in the market between people who believe price is going up and people who believe price is going down. No amount of technical or fundamental analysis can explain why there are always two opposite sides to every transaction. If you believe you and your analysis are right, then you are basically saying whoever at the opposite side of your trade is wrong. What makes you so sure about that? Only your belief about your analysis (obviously your opposite side believes just the opposite). This will never change - market works the same way as it did a hundred years ago. If you think your analysis and evaluation can consistently find you winning trades, you are thinking in illusions, my friend! Your blind spots have prevented you from seeing many other real market potentials you believe can’t or don’t exist-think again.
Most people take a risk without being consciously aware of their perceptual bias and their own psychological process (I am talking about what triggers your emotions of greed and fear). They enter a trade when they trust their opinions or analysis enough, but they never take time to ask themselves: if analysis really works and can make them money consistently, all stock analysts and Wall Street ph ds would be billionaires by now.
When someone says that there’s no method with over 70% chance of winning, he is thinking like my friend, because he believed strongly enough about what he read and heard regarding the chance of winning in the stock market. The possibility to win over 70% of the time is not in the realm of his belief system, so he simply dismissed it without giving it a second thought. I share with you another fact that one of my trader friends has made winning trades over two consecutive years month after month without a single loss! Have you read it in any books? Did you ever hear about it? No, but it’s true. To change your results you must start from changing your beliefs about the nature of market, your analysis, and risks in trading! Never ask “why” market/price does this or that, it’s even more futile to analyze it to find out “why” or “what does it means?”, you only need to ask yourself how you should respond when market does this or that – long, short, or wait on the sideline.
I met Steve Nison some years ago (he basically introduced candlestick charting to US and wrote several very good books about it), and he told me he didn’t trade at all except teaching seminars and providing commentary and consultation services. (I don’t think Sam Stovall trades too, if you know who he is.) If the “father” of candlesticks can’t make money based on candlestick charts, what’s the chance you will based on candlesticks? Yet when you believe it strong enough, you will keep using it (I am not saying there’s no merit in learning candlestick charts, there is but not in the way most people do). I have heard of people using astrology or moon cycles to trade too, if you laugh at them, you should really take a serious look at your own beliefs and premises about the nature of market. Yours and theirs are the same based only on beliefs, not facts.
I don’t know if you all have read “Market Wizards” about those super successful traders and investors. How many of them have you ever heard about and how many you know have ever written any books about trading? Almost none! So you ought to know that those people you hear on CNBC everyday, those who wrote trading books or blogs every day on web are not necessarily successful traders; in fact 99% of what you read or hear are useless noise, but not if you believe in them. So in reality we don’t trade stocks, we trade our beliefs about those stocks and about our analysis. That’s why market is a mirror - your results directly reflect to you your beliefs and current stage of maturation as a trader, nothing else.
My friend, trading and investing are 95% mental and 5% technical. If you want to win consistently you must shift your focus from analyzing the market to analyzing yourself – you must understand your own belief structure and perceptual bias in “seeing” the market. You must develop the discipline to take small losses until you understand the true nature of the market, by then your execution will be flawless and in sync with the market almost all the time. Otherwise you have no chance to win.
I have said what I need to say and done what I promised myself to, so the floor is all yours. I wish you all the very best! If you have any questions, please contact me at gulee at hotmail dot com, I will be glad to answer them. Have a wonderful weekend!
If you think this story over, you will realize as I did that we all see things within our own belief structure we developed over our lifetime, but that belief structure has many blind spots that distort our perceptions and prevent us from seeing many life's possibilities if those possibilities don’t exist in our belief structure. Just think about your beliefs about America before you arrived here for the first time. How many things we would have never believed possible are indeed real and true right in front of our eyes! Making $1 million dollars in a year is impossible in my friend’s belief system, so making $2 million in one single day is of course insane to him! Yet it's a fact and is real, because I was there to witness it that day!
Then I realized that trading is exactly the same. We all see market differently based on our unique belief structure about how market works – not how it really works. Based on our own unique beliefs each of us “saw” the market differently with mental bias we are not even aware of. This is why at every second of every day there's a battle in the market between people who believe price is going up and people who believe price is going down. No amount of technical or fundamental analysis can explain why there are always two opposite sides to every transaction. If you believe you and your analysis are right, then you are basically saying whoever at the opposite side of your trade is wrong. What makes you so sure about that? Only your belief about your analysis (obviously your opposite side believes just the opposite). This will never change - market works the same way as it did a hundred years ago. If you think your analysis and evaluation can consistently find you winning trades, you are thinking in illusions, my friend! Your blind spots have prevented you from seeing many other real market potentials you believe can’t or don’t exist-think again.
Most people take a risk without being consciously aware of their perceptual bias and their own psychological process (I am talking about what triggers your emotions of greed and fear). They enter a trade when they trust their opinions or analysis enough, but they never take time to ask themselves: if analysis really works and can make them money consistently, all stock analysts and Wall Street ph ds would be billionaires by now.
When someone says that there’s no method with over 70% chance of winning, he is thinking like my friend, because he believed strongly enough about what he read and heard regarding the chance of winning in the stock market. The possibility to win over 70% of the time is not in the realm of his belief system, so he simply dismissed it without giving it a second thought. I share with you another fact that one of my trader friends has made winning trades over two consecutive years month after month without a single loss! Have you read it in any books? Did you ever hear about it? No, but it’s true. To change your results you must start from changing your beliefs about the nature of market, your analysis, and risks in trading! Never ask “why” market/price does this or that, it’s even more futile to analyze it to find out “why” or “what does it means?”, you only need to ask yourself how you should respond when market does this or that – long, short, or wait on the sideline.
I met Steve Nison some years ago (he basically introduced candlestick charting to US and wrote several very good books about it), and he told me he didn’t trade at all except teaching seminars and providing commentary and consultation services. (I don’t think Sam Stovall trades too, if you know who he is.) If the “father” of candlesticks can’t make money based on candlestick charts, what’s the chance you will based on candlesticks? Yet when you believe it strong enough, you will keep using it (I am not saying there’s no merit in learning candlestick charts, there is but not in the way most people do). I have heard of people using astrology or moon cycles to trade too, if you laugh at them, you should really take a serious look at your own beliefs and premises about the nature of market. Yours and theirs are the same based only on beliefs, not facts.
I don’t know if you all have read “Market Wizards” about those super successful traders and investors. How many of them have you ever heard about and how many you know have ever written any books about trading? Almost none! So you ought to know that those people you hear on CNBC everyday, those who wrote trading books or blogs every day on web are not necessarily successful traders; in fact 99% of what you read or hear are useless noise, but not if you believe in them. So in reality we don’t trade stocks, we trade our beliefs about those stocks and about our analysis. That’s why market is a mirror - your results directly reflect to you your beliefs and current stage of maturation as a trader, nothing else.
My friend, trading and investing are 95% mental and 5% technical. If you want to win consistently you must shift your focus from analyzing the market to analyzing yourself – you must understand your own belief structure and perceptual bias in “seeing” the market. You must develop the discipline to take small losses until you understand the true nature of the market, by then your execution will be flawless and in sync with the market almost all the time. Otherwise you have no chance to win.
I have said what I need to say and done what I promised myself to, so the floor is all yours. I wish you all the very best! If you have any questions, please contact me at gulee at hotmail dot com, I will be glad to answer them. Have a wonderful weekend!
Thursday, August 18, 2011
股市学习
期权（英语：Option），又称为选择权，是在期货的基础上产生的衍生金融工具。从其本质上讲，期权实质上是在金融领域中将权利和义务分开进行定价，使得权利的受让人在规定时间内对于是否进行交易，行使其权利，而义务方必须履行。在期权的交易时，购买期权的一方称作买方，而出售期权的一方则叫做卖方；买方即是权利的受让人，而卖方则是必须履行买方行使权利的义务人。
期权具“零和游戏”特性，而个股期权及指数期权皆可组合，进行套利交易或避险交易。
期权主要可分为买方期权（Call Option）和卖方期权（Put Option），前者也称为看涨期权或认购期权，后者也称为看空期权或认沽期权。
基本上，交易市场具有买卖双方（Holder、Seller），使期权具有四种基本形式：
1.买入买权（Long Call）
2.卖出买权（Short Call）
3.买入卖权（Long Put）
4.卖出卖权（Short Put）
期权具“零和游戏”特性，而个股期权及指数期权皆可组合，进行套利交易或避险交易。
期权主要可分为买方期权（Call Option）和卖方期权（Put Option），前者也称为看涨期权或认购期权，后者也称为看空期权或认沽期权。
基本上，交易市场具有买卖双方（Holder、Seller），使期权具有四种基本形式：
1.买入买权（Long Call）
2.卖出买权（Short Call）
3.买入卖权（Long Put）
4.卖出卖权（Short Put）
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