一种沉浸于文字和诗行深处的宁静、孤独与忧伤，令我想起Tomas Transtromer的几行诗：
静悄悄的房间
家具在月光中看起来准备好猝然爆发
我穿过一片空铠甲的森林
慢慢走进自己
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Friday, August 26, 2011
Andrew Wyeth
"With watercolour, you can pick up the atmosphere, the temperature, the sound of snow shifting through the trees or over the ice of a small pond or against a windowpane. Watercolour perfectly expresses the free side of my nature." - Andrew Wyeth
飓风来临
前两天地震，这几天飓风，很有点圣经里的最后的审判的意思。
我是个怕活不怕死的人，死比活容易多了。所以，在这种大家惊慌失措的时刻，我总是格外镇静。
说是周末下大雨，我从图书馆借来了书。我最感兴趣的是真实的故事，而这故事的主角一定要是特殊材料制成的人，而不是像我这样平常的人。其实，人有多大胆，地有多高产，不是一句胡说八道，而是人类贪娈疯狂的真正天性。
我在看几本书，主要是2000年发生在比利时Antwerp的历史上最大的钻石偷窃案，和1990年发生在波士顿 Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum，至今未破的历史上最大的艺术偷窃案。
还有一本Great Bear of Wall Street Jesse Lauriston Livermore的书。
我要和和这些疯狂下流，却生机勃勃的人一起渡过这个疯狂惊险有趣的夏天。。。
我是个怕活不怕死的人，死比活容易多了。所以，在这种大家惊慌失措的时刻，我总是格外镇静。
说是周末下大雨，我从图书馆借来了书。我最感兴趣的是真实的故事，而这故事的主角一定要是特殊材料制成的人，而不是像我这样平常的人。其实，人有多大胆，地有多高产，不是一句胡说八道，而是人类贪娈疯狂的真正天性。
我在看几本书，主要是2000年发生在比利时Antwerp的历史上最大的钻石偷窃案，和1990年发生在波士顿 Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum，至今未破的历史上最大的艺术偷窃案。
还有一本Great Bear of Wall Street Jesse Lauriston Livermore的书。
我要和和这些疯狂下流，却生机勃勃的人一起渡过这个疯狂惊险有趣的夏天。。。
读书笔记---Diamond history
The history of Antwerp as the World Diamond Center is a very fascinating and long one, too long to tell the whole story, but too marvellous to exclude you completely from it! We would like to give you therefore an insight into this brilliant history.
We shall probably never know when the first diamonds were discovered, but we do know that, from ancient times until the eighteenth century, all the world’s diamonds came from India. From the time of the Roman Empire until the arrival of the first Europeans in India at the beginning of the sixteenth century, trade relations flourished between Europe and Eastern Asia. One of the two principal diamond trade routes passed through Venice.
The city became the most important mercantile republic in the western world. It enjoyed a monopoly of the diamond trade on its way to the main towns of southern Germany up to its final destination in Bruges. Lying as it did at the far end of the trade route, Bruges gradually developed into a flourishing diamond-cutting center and the city’s reputation in this field steadily increased with time. Although Bruges maintained its pre-eminent position up to the end of the fourteenth century, within fifty years it began to decline because of the silting of the Zwin.
The diamond trade, along with Bruge’s many other economic activities, gradually shifted to the city of Antwerp which offered newer and better facilities for communications and exchange.
Antwerp was in the sixteenth century an expanding and flourishing city. By this time Antwerp already played a determining role in the development of diamond-working techniques . It is significant, for example, that Francois I did not call on the diamond cutters of Paris but placed his orders instead with the craftsmen of Antwerp.
Antwerp was at that time the commercial heart of Europe; approximately 40 % of the world trade passed through its port. Naturally the diamond occupied a favoured place. However the northern Netherlands’s growing proportion on its business was acquired by Amsterdam. Antwerp’s decline did not occur overnight and despite internal struggles such as the conflict between the New Guild of Diamond Cutters and the rich merchants, the city’s prestige remained apparently intact up to the middle of the seventeenth century and the diamond trade itself continued to flourish
At the end of the seventeenth century, Amsterdam came to the fore. It was a privileged city that offered religious and civil liberty and, up to the eighteenth century, it came to exercise a near monopoly not only on the diamond industry but also on the trade in diamonds. From then on Amsterdam supplied Antwerp in rough diamonds and, since the Dutch city kept the best stones for its own diamond cutters, Antwerp was obliged to make do with diamonds of inferior quality. Far from being discouraged, the Antwerp craftsmen took advantage of these rather difficult years and managed to transform small and mediocre stones into finely worked gems.
In 1866 the first diamond was discovered in South Africa. This discovery, followed a few years later by that of the Kimberley deposits and the fabulous Kimberley era and the rise of the now-famous De Beers Consolidated Mines Ltd. resulted in large-scale prospecting and mining activities which brought Europe massive supplies of rough diamonds. This massive influx of rough stones following the discoveries in South Africa was instrumental in contributing to the city’s status of Antwerp as the world’s leading diamond centre. Within a few months, this massive influx provided work for thousands of craftsmen , and the swift revival of diamond cutting in Antwerp was further stimulated by an ever-growing demand for gemstones.
The depression of the 1930s hit the diamond trade hard. The cutting shops were sometimes shut down completely for several weeks at a time. The situation remained difficult until the outbreak of the Second World War. In 1939 many Jewish businessmen fled the country and went to the United States, Portugal or England, where more than 500 diamond dealers from Antwerp, continued to meet and to do business.
In an attempt to save as much of the existing diamond stocks as possible from the Germans, the 500 dealers in England transferred the diamonds there. In agreement with the British government, an organisation known as the Correspondence Office for the Diamond Industry was set up to register the diamonds and keep them for the duration of the war. Thanks to this organisation large quantities of diamonds were returned to their owners after the city was liberated and the Antwerp diamond industry got off to a promising start when the war was ended.
We shall probably never know when the first diamonds were discovered, but we do know that, from ancient times until the eighteenth century, all the world’s diamonds came from India. From the time of the Roman Empire until the arrival of the first Europeans in India at the beginning of the sixteenth century, trade relations flourished between Europe and Eastern Asia. One of the two principal diamond trade routes passed through Venice.
The city became the most important mercantile republic in the western world. It enjoyed a monopoly of the diamond trade on its way to the main towns of southern Germany up to its final destination in Bruges. Lying as it did at the far end of the trade route, Bruges gradually developed into a flourishing diamond-cutting center and the city’s reputation in this field steadily increased with time. Although Bruges maintained its pre-eminent position up to the end of the fourteenth century, within fifty years it began to decline because of the silting of the Zwin.
The diamond trade, along with Bruge’s many other economic activities, gradually shifted to the city of Antwerp which offered newer and better facilities for communications and exchange.
Antwerp was in the sixteenth century an expanding and flourishing city. By this time Antwerp already played a determining role in the development of diamond-working techniques . It is significant, for example, that Francois I did not call on the diamond cutters of Paris but placed his orders instead with the craftsmen of Antwerp.
Antwerp was at that time the commercial heart of Europe; approximately 40 % of the world trade passed through its port. Naturally the diamond occupied a favoured place. However the northern Netherlands’s growing proportion on its business was acquired by Amsterdam. Antwerp’s decline did not occur overnight and despite internal struggles such as the conflict between the New Guild of Diamond Cutters and the rich merchants, the city’s prestige remained apparently intact up to the middle of the seventeenth century and the diamond trade itself continued to flourish
At the end of the seventeenth century, Amsterdam came to the fore. It was a privileged city that offered religious and civil liberty and, up to the eighteenth century, it came to exercise a near monopoly not only on the diamond industry but also on the trade in diamonds. From then on Amsterdam supplied Antwerp in rough diamonds and, since the Dutch city kept the best stones for its own diamond cutters, Antwerp was obliged to make do with diamonds of inferior quality. Far from being discouraged, the Antwerp craftsmen took advantage of these rather difficult years and managed to transform small and mediocre stones into finely worked gems.
In 1866 the first diamond was discovered in South Africa. This discovery, followed a few years later by that of the Kimberley deposits and the fabulous Kimberley era and the rise of the now-famous De Beers Consolidated Mines Ltd. resulted in large-scale prospecting and mining activities which brought Europe massive supplies of rough diamonds. This massive influx of rough stones following the discoveries in South Africa was instrumental in contributing to the city’s status of Antwerp as the world’s leading diamond centre. Within a few months, this massive influx provided work for thousands of craftsmen , and the swift revival of diamond cutting in Antwerp was further stimulated by an ever-growing demand for gemstones.
The depression of the 1930s hit the diamond trade hard. The cutting shops were sometimes shut down completely for several weeks at a time. The situation remained difficult until the outbreak of the Second World War. In 1939 many Jewish businessmen fled the country and went to the United States, Portugal or England, where more than 500 diamond dealers from Antwerp, continued to meet and to do business.
In an attempt to save as much of the existing diamond stocks as possible from the Germans, the 500 dealers in England transferred the diamonds there. In agreement with the British government, an organisation known as the Correspondence Office for the Diamond Industry was set up to register the diamonds and keep them for the duration of the war. Thanks to this organisation large quantities of diamonds were returned to their owners after the city was liberated and the Antwerp diamond industry got off to a promising start when the war was ended.
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Bachmann也读书
其实，我喜欢看Bachmann讲演。我喜欢她雄赳赳的高扬斗志，因为我自己是个消极颓废的人，所以特别欣赏干劲冲天的女人。我自己是个内向的人，极不愿意在公众面前说三道四，所以看见那些滔滔不绝，高腔大嗓的女人，就很有兴趣想去研究她内在的动力。每每听到她自信的开口成河，而于我都是胡说八道的浑话时，总是不禁地想：Where is come from?
今天，看报纸说，Bachmann很爱读书。每当她去海边休假时，总是“When I go on vacation and I lay on the beach, I bring Von Mises.”
嘿嘿，难怪我总是觉得这人走火入魔了呢。谁在海边读Von Mises？
谁是Von Mises呢？
路德维希·冯·米塞斯（Ludwig von Mises, 1881年9月29日－1973年10月10日），知名的经济学家，现代自由意志主义运动的主要影响人，也是促长古典自由主义复苏的学者。他还被誉为是“奥地利经济学派的院长”。
他在经济学领域撰写了很多有关以下两种问题的著作：
1.货币经济和通货膨胀
2.政府控制的经济体制和自由贸易之间的差异
换句话说：米塞斯的基本点有其二：
第一：金本位。米塞斯主张对于货币的需求纯粹是出自于它能用以购买其他货物的功能而产生的，而非为了货币本身的目的，也因此任何在没有黄金支撑下对于货币供给的扩张都会导致商业周期（Business cycle）。
第二：主张社会主义在经济上必然会失败，因为经济计算问题（economic calculation problem）注定了社会主义的政府永远无法正确的计算复杂万分的经济体系，由于失去了价格机制，社会主义政府根本无从得知市场需求的情报，而随之而来的必然是计划的失败和经济的彻底崩溃。
先不说米塞斯的理论对错吧，我不相信任何一个经济学家发现了经济发展的真正规律。所有的经济学家只是根据经济发展的现象，试图找出一种理论来解释。
一个有某种坚强信念的人其实根本不应该当总统。总统更像一名工程师，维护国家系统正常的旋转。我自己是工程师，工程师的任务是，找出系统最主要的毛病，用各种手段解决调和，使之运行最优化。
所以，我相信一个好总统不能是一个极端的人，而是要有清晰的目标，深刻的洞察力，面对现状，解决问题。
今天，看报纸说，Bachmann很爱读书。每当她去海边休假时，总是“When I go on vacation and I lay on the beach, I bring Von Mises.”
嘿嘿，难怪我总是觉得这人走火入魔了呢。谁在海边读Von Mises？
谁是Von Mises呢？
路德维希·冯·米塞斯（Ludwig von Mises, 1881年9月29日－1973年10月10日），知名的经济学家，现代自由意志主义运动的主要影响人，也是促长古典自由主义复苏的学者。他还被誉为是“奥地利经济学派的院长”。
他在经济学领域撰写了很多有关以下两种问题的著作：
1.货币经济和通货膨胀
2.政府控制的经济体制和自由贸易之间的差异
换句话说：米塞斯的基本点有其二：
第一：金本位。米塞斯主张对于货币的需求纯粹是出自于它能用以购买其他货物的功能而产生的，而非为了货币本身的目的，也因此任何在没有黄金支撑下对于货币供给的扩张都会导致商业周期（Business cycle）。
第二：主张社会主义在经济上必然会失败，因为经济计算问题（economic calculation problem）注定了社会主义的政府永远无法正确的计算复杂万分的经济体系，由于失去了价格机制，社会主义政府根本无从得知市场需求的情报，而随之而来的必然是计划的失败和经济的彻底崩溃。
先不说米塞斯的理论对错吧，我不相信任何一个经济学家发现了经济发展的真正规律。所有的经济学家只是根据经济发展的现象，试图找出一种理论来解释。
一个有某种坚强信念的人其实根本不应该当总统。总统更像一名工程师，维护国家系统正常的旋转。我自己是工程师，工程师的任务是，找出系统最主要的毛病，用各种手段解决调和，使之运行最优化。
所以，我相信一个好总统不能是一个极端的人，而是要有清晰的目标，深刻的洞察力，面对现状，解决问题。
Friday, August 19, 2011
gulee教导（4）
Thank you for sharing your experience! It's always a good idea to sell when you have a loss, because no one can predict future, it's only in hindsight we see a bottom or top. It's this hope of tomorrow's reversal/bottom/top, which always came too late, that kills most traders when they should but hesitate to take the small loss. "First loss is always your best loss!"
Even you sold at the bottom, so what? You have demonstrated discipline by taking actions instead of waiting on hope, you will begin to trust yourself more and you will trade/invest with more confidence, and all you have lost will come back to you many folds! Self-trust and confidence just like discipline are critical in trading.
As I mentioned before trading well by following rules with discipline, not trading profit or loss, should be the standard we use to evaluate ourselves and our trades, because we have no control of how much market is willing to give us, but we do have control of how much to lose.
Our mental state and emotions distort our perceptions, subsequently our judgements and actions, so when you are in a stressful situation, such as job loss, depression, or hospitalization of loved ones, you should liquidate all your positions or buy insurance (puts options) to protect your long term investment. Don't trade with real money until you are in the right mental state. There're always plenty of opportunities to make money in the market, and the market will always be here when you feel better and come back, I promise.
Even you sold at the bottom, so what? You have demonstrated discipline by taking actions instead of waiting on hope, you will begin to trust yourself more and you will trade/invest with more confidence, and all you have lost will come back to you many folds! Self-trust and confidence just like discipline are critical in trading.
As I mentioned before trading well by following rules with discipline, not trading profit or loss, should be the standard we use to evaluate ourselves and our trades, because we have no control of how much market is willing to give us, but we do have control of how much to lose.
Our mental state and emotions distort our perceptions, subsequently our judgements and actions, so when you are in a stressful situation, such as job loss, depression, or hospitalization of loved ones, you should liquidate all your positions or buy insurance (puts options) to protect your long term investment. Don't trade with real money until you are in the right mental state. There're always plenty of opportunities to make money in the market, and the market will always be here when you feel better and come back, I promise.
gulee教导（3）
I have a simple suggestion to you, but whether you have the discipline to do it or not is totally up to you. Here's what you should do:
Next time you watch the charts, find an entry (for example you see a trade on Daily chart around 11 AM) and feel the urge to get in, DO NOT! Resist the urge and leave the computer or shut it down and walk out, go fishing, give your wife a foot massage, or whatever. After one or two hours or any time before market closes, turn your computer on and check the charts, if you saw your trade earlier on a Daily chart, now I want you to look at 20 minutes charts, if you see a pull back AFTER the time you saw your trade (around 11 AM), then you wait, as soon as it turns around or may have already turned around to go your way as your originally entry (price should have broken the trend line you draw on the pull back on 20 min chart), you get in right there. You wait for the next day to get in if price never broke trend line of the pull back on 20 min chart before close today.
After you get in, you only need to check your stock 5-10 minutes before market closes each day (not earlier, not at the open). You must resist the urge to watch market or your stock every hour or during the day. You leave it alone as long as price is above your entry price, or you MUST have the discipline to exit if price fell below your entry price before market closes (not during the day).
If you can do this, particularly if you wait to do a trade only when it aligns with the general market direction (long when general market like DOW, NASDAQ, SP are up; short when market is down), you will win a lot more often than you lose. If your stock is just leaving Bollinger Band as you enter on Daily chart or your trade direction is also with Weekly chart direction and sector/industry direction, you will almost be certain to make money on this trade. If you do this in Nov-Mar and resist the urge to take profit by sitting tight for days and weeks, your proift will higher than you expect.
Before you trade real money, you probably need to paper trade it for a while.
To illustrate my points here's a real example on OII down trade/shorting/puts at 1 PM on 8/18. (I am not recommending this stock, just for illustration purpose)
Weekly chart: price testing 20 MA resistance and 50 MA support but failing now;
Daily chart: gap down and indicate a down trade;
So you move to 21 min. chart: it gapped down at open and pulled back (up) to its 200 MA resistance around $37.3, then around 1 PM price reversed down again to $37 which broke the trendline on the up pull back, you get in right here at round $37!
Next time you watch the charts, find an entry (for example you see a trade on Daily chart around 11 AM) and feel the urge to get in, DO NOT! Resist the urge and leave the computer or shut it down and walk out, go fishing, give your wife a foot massage, or whatever. After one or two hours or any time before market closes, turn your computer on and check the charts, if you saw your trade earlier on a Daily chart, now I want you to look at 20 minutes charts, if you see a pull back AFTER the time you saw your trade (around 11 AM), then you wait, as soon as it turns around or may have already turned around to go your way as your originally entry (price should have broken the trend line you draw on the pull back on 20 min chart), you get in right there. You wait for the next day to get in if price never broke trend line of the pull back on 20 min chart before close today.
After you get in, you only need to check your stock 5-10 minutes before market closes each day (not earlier, not at the open). You must resist the urge to watch market or your stock every hour or during the day. You leave it alone as long as price is above your entry price, or you MUST have the discipline to exit if price fell below your entry price before market closes (not during the day).
If you can do this, particularly if you wait to do a trade only when it aligns with the general market direction (long when general market like DOW, NASDAQ, SP are up; short when market is down), you will win a lot more often than you lose. If your stock is just leaving Bollinger Band as you enter on Daily chart or your trade direction is also with Weekly chart direction and sector/industry direction, you will almost be certain to make money on this trade. If you do this in Nov-Mar and resist the urge to take profit by sitting tight for days and weeks, your proift will higher than you expect.
Before you trade real money, you probably need to paper trade it for a while.
To illustrate my points here's a real example on OII down trade/shorting/puts at 1 PM on 8/18. (I am not recommending this stock, just for illustration purpose)
Weekly chart: price testing 20 MA resistance and 50 MA support but failing now;
Daily chart: gap down and indicate a down trade;
So you move to 21 min. chart: it gapped down at open and pulled back (up) to its 200 MA resistance around $37.3, then around 1 PM price reversed down again to $37 which broke the trendline on the up pull back, you get in right here at round $37!
gulee教导（2）
keep doing what you are doing, you are on the right track. Anyone can become a successful trader and investor if he/she works hard, trust him/herself, and think on his/her own feet – most importantly has discipline and patience to practice and learn every single day (I am not kidding)! Paper trading is essential for practicing your skills even when you are very good at making money. Don't you think Michael Jorden and Tiger Woods made their "practice" at real tournaments or outside them? They practice ten times more outside real competition, it's the same about paper trading.
In three years you will be amazed how much you have grown. The reality is three years later we are all three years older whether we have chosen today to pursue our dreams or not. For those who did choose to they will someday see what the other side looks like; for those who failed to choose, they will never know. God bless!
In three years you will be amazed how much you have grown. The reality is three years later we are all three years older whether we have chosen today to pursue our dreams or not. For those who did choose to they will someday see what the other side looks like; for those who failed to choose, they will never know. God bless!
gulee教导（1）
The story is absolutely real and true. A few years ago one of my friends who know what I do asked me about how to get out of debt and make money trading. To help him out I gave him a list of steps to follow to get rid of debt within a few years. This is exactly the same list my mentor gave to us some time ago. I never used it myself because I don't have any debt and my mortgages have been paid off too. To inspire my friend to embark on a difficult journey to debt free living and possibly financial freedom, I shared with him my own experience and my mentor’s with a few facts I saw first hand - my mentor once made $2 million dollars profit in one single day (true story). But to my surprise my friend thought I was crazy, so I stopped telling people about my mentor and my trading. Most time I am just listening without saying a word when people around me talk about stock market and their investments.
If you think this story over, you will realize as I did that we all see things within our own belief structure we developed over our lifetime, but that belief structure has many blind spots that distort our perceptions and prevent us from seeing many life's possibilities if those possibilities don’t exist in our belief structure. Just think about your beliefs about America before you arrived here for the first time. How many things we would have never believed possible are indeed real and true right in front of our eyes! Making $1 million dollars in a year is impossible in my friend’s belief system, so making $2 million in one single day is of course insane to him! Yet it's a fact and is real, because I was there to witness it that day!
Then I realized that trading is exactly the same. We all see market differently based on our unique belief structure about how market works – not how it really works. Based on our own unique beliefs each of us “saw” the market differently with mental bias we are not even aware of. This is why at every second of every day there's a battle in the market between people who believe price is going up and people who believe price is going down. No amount of technical or fundamental analysis can explain why there are always two opposite sides to every transaction. If you believe you and your analysis are right, then you are basically saying whoever at the opposite side of your trade is wrong. What makes you so sure about that? Only your belief about your analysis (obviously your opposite side believes just the opposite). This will never change - market works the same way as it did a hundred years ago. If you think your analysis and evaluation can consistently find you winning trades, you are thinking in illusions, my friend! Your blind spots have prevented you from seeing many other real market potentials you believe can’t or don’t exist-think again.
Most people take a risk without being consciously aware of their perceptual bias and their own psychological process (I am talking about what triggers your emotions of greed and fear). They enter a trade when they trust their opinions or analysis enough, but they never take time to ask themselves: if analysis really works and can make them money consistently, all stock analysts and Wall Street ph ds would be billionaires by now.
When someone says that there’s no method with over 70% chance of winning, he is thinking like my friend, because he believed strongly enough about what he read and heard regarding the chance of winning in the stock market. The possibility to win over 70% of the time is not in the realm of his belief system, so he simply dismissed it without giving it a second thought. I share with you another fact that one of my trader friends has made winning trades over two consecutive years month after month without a single loss! Have you read it in any books? Did you ever hear about it? No, but it’s true. To change your results you must start from changing your beliefs about the nature of market, your analysis, and risks in trading! Never ask “why” market/price does this or that, it’s even more futile to analyze it to find out “why” or “what does it means?”, you only need to ask yourself how you should respond when market does this or that – long, short, or wait on the sideline.
I met Steve Nison some years ago (he basically introduced candlestick charting to US and wrote several very good books about it), and he told me he didn’t trade at all except teaching seminars and providing commentary and consultation services. (I don’t think Sam Stovall trades too, if you know who he is.) If the “father” of candlesticks can’t make money based on candlestick charts, what’s the chance you will based on candlesticks? Yet when you believe it strong enough, you will keep using it (I am not saying there’s no merit in learning candlestick charts, there is but not in the way most people do). I have heard of people using astrology or moon cycles to trade too, if you laugh at them, you should really take a serious look at your own beliefs and premises about the nature of market. Yours and theirs are the same based only on beliefs, not facts.
I don’t know if you all have read “Market Wizards” about those super successful traders and investors. How many of them have you ever heard about and how many you know have ever written any books about trading? Almost none! So you ought to know that those people you hear on CNBC everyday, those who wrote trading books or blogs every day on web are not necessarily successful traders; in fact 99% of what you read or hear are useless noise, but not if you believe in them. So in reality we don’t trade stocks, we trade our beliefs about those stocks and about our analysis. That’s why market is a mirror - your results directly reflect to you your beliefs and current stage of maturation as a trader, nothing else.
My friend, trading and investing are 95% mental and 5% technical. If you want to win consistently you must shift your focus from analyzing the market to analyzing yourself – you must understand your own belief structure and perceptual bias in “seeing” the market. You must develop the discipline to take small losses until you understand the true nature of the market, by then your execution will be flawless and in sync with the market almost all the time. Otherwise you have no chance to win.
I have said what I need to say and done what I promised myself to, so the floor is all yours. I wish you all the very best! If you have any questions, please contact me at gulee at hotmail dot com, I will be glad to answer them. Have a wonderful weekend!
If you think this story over, you will realize as I did that we all see things within our own belief structure we developed over our lifetime, but that belief structure has many blind spots that distort our perceptions and prevent us from seeing many life's possibilities if those possibilities don’t exist in our belief structure. Just think about your beliefs about America before you arrived here for the first time. How many things we would have never believed possible are indeed real and true right in front of our eyes! Making $1 million dollars in a year is impossible in my friend’s belief system, so making $2 million in one single day is of course insane to him! Yet it's a fact and is real, because I was there to witness it that day!
Then I realized that trading is exactly the same. We all see market differently based on our unique belief structure about how market works – not how it really works. Based on our own unique beliefs each of us “saw” the market differently with mental bias we are not even aware of. This is why at every second of every day there's a battle in the market between people who believe price is going up and people who believe price is going down. No amount of technical or fundamental analysis can explain why there are always two opposite sides to every transaction. If you believe you and your analysis are right, then you are basically saying whoever at the opposite side of your trade is wrong. What makes you so sure about that? Only your belief about your analysis (obviously your opposite side believes just the opposite). This will never change - market works the same way as it did a hundred years ago. If you think your analysis and evaluation can consistently find you winning trades, you are thinking in illusions, my friend! Your blind spots have prevented you from seeing many other real market potentials you believe can’t or don’t exist-think again.
Most people take a risk without being consciously aware of their perceptual bias and their own psychological process (I am talking about what triggers your emotions of greed and fear). They enter a trade when they trust their opinions or analysis enough, but they never take time to ask themselves: if analysis really works and can make them money consistently, all stock analysts and Wall Street ph ds would be billionaires by now.
When someone says that there’s no method with over 70% chance of winning, he is thinking like my friend, because he believed strongly enough about what he read and heard regarding the chance of winning in the stock market. The possibility to win over 70% of the time is not in the realm of his belief system, so he simply dismissed it without giving it a second thought. I share with you another fact that one of my trader friends has made winning trades over two consecutive years month after month without a single loss! Have you read it in any books? Did you ever hear about it? No, but it’s true. To change your results you must start from changing your beliefs about the nature of market, your analysis, and risks in trading! Never ask “why” market/price does this or that, it’s even more futile to analyze it to find out “why” or “what does it means?”, you only need to ask yourself how you should respond when market does this or that – long, short, or wait on the sideline.
I met Steve Nison some years ago (he basically introduced candlestick charting to US and wrote several very good books about it), and he told me he didn’t trade at all except teaching seminars and providing commentary and consultation services. (I don’t think Sam Stovall trades too, if you know who he is.) If the “father” of candlesticks can’t make money based on candlestick charts, what’s the chance you will based on candlesticks? Yet when you believe it strong enough, you will keep using it (I am not saying there’s no merit in learning candlestick charts, there is but not in the way most people do). I have heard of people using astrology or moon cycles to trade too, if you laugh at them, you should really take a serious look at your own beliefs and premises about the nature of market. Yours and theirs are the same based only on beliefs, not facts.
I don’t know if you all have read “Market Wizards” about those super successful traders and investors. How many of them have you ever heard about and how many you know have ever written any books about trading? Almost none! So you ought to know that those people you hear on CNBC everyday, those who wrote trading books or blogs every day on web are not necessarily successful traders; in fact 99% of what you read or hear are useless noise, but not if you believe in them. So in reality we don’t trade stocks, we trade our beliefs about those stocks and about our analysis. That’s why market is a mirror - your results directly reflect to you your beliefs and current stage of maturation as a trader, nothing else.
My friend, trading and investing are 95% mental and 5% technical. If you want to win consistently you must shift your focus from analyzing the market to analyzing yourself – you must understand your own belief structure and perceptual bias in “seeing” the market. You must develop the discipline to take small losses until you understand the true nature of the market, by then your execution will be flawless and in sync with the market almost all the time. Otherwise you have no chance to win.
I have said what I need to say and done what I promised myself to, so the floor is all yours. I wish you all the very best! If you have any questions, please contact me at gulee at hotmail dot com, I will be glad to answer them. Have a wonderful weekend!
Thursday, August 18, 2011
股市学习
期权（英语：Option），又称为选择权，是在期货的基础上产生的衍生金融工具。从其本质上讲，期权实质上是在金融领域中将权利和义务分开进行定价，使得权利的受让人在规定时间内对于是否进行交易，行使其权利，而义务方必须履行。在期权的交易时，购买期权的一方称作买方，而出售期权的一方则叫做卖方；买方即是权利的受让人，而卖方则是必须履行买方行使权利的义务人。
期权具“零和游戏”特性，而个股期权及指数期权皆可组合，进行套利交易或避险交易。
期权主要可分为买方期权（Call Option）和卖方期权（Put Option），前者也称为看涨期权或认购期权，后者也称为看空期权或认沽期权。
基本上，交易市场具有买卖双方（Holder、Seller），使期权具有四种基本形式：
1.买入买权（Long Call）
2.卖出买权（Short Call）
3.买入卖权（Long Put）
4.卖出卖权（Short Put）
期权具“零和游戏”特性，而个股期权及指数期权皆可组合，进行套利交易或避险交易。
期权主要可分为买方期权（Call Option）和卖方期权（Put Option），前者也称为看涨期权或认购期权，后者也称为看空期权或认沽期权。
基本上，交易市场具有买卖双方（Holder、Seller），使期权具有四种基本形式：
1.买入买权（Long Call）
2.卖出买权（Short Call）
3.买入卖权（Long Put）
4.卖出卖权（Short Put）
Sunday, August 14, 2011
美国很糟
每天听到的都是悲惨的消息，股市震荡了，没有工作了，奥巴马让大家不耐烦了。。。
可以说奥巴马无能。可是，仔细想想，他面对两场战争，一场由全球经济引起的严重的经济危机，他又有多少办法？
对，应改改革，可是共和党对民主党的仇恨。。。
但是，我相信到了某点的时候，社会就会改革了。因为，人是要求生的。
可以说奥巴马无能。可是，仔细想想，他面对两场战争，一场由全球经济引起的严重的经济危机，他又有多少办法？
对，应改改革，可是共和党对民主党的仇恨。。。
但是，我相信到了某点的时候，社会就会改革了。因为，人是要求生的。
热爱米饭
我最近迷上了做米饭。
当然，米饭我吃了一辈子了。要说我不会做米饭，那是不对的。
小时候，在苏州，鱼米之乡，米饭和阶级斗争一样，是天天吃，月月吃，年年吃，顿顿吃的。南方人离了米饭或不了，北方的馒头窝头就足以致他们于死地了。
那时候的米很脏，做饭前要把米放在一个网眼紧密的竹篮子里，对着太阳，先寻一番虫子，小石子，泥块，把它们一个个捏出去，再用水一遍遍淘，刚开始的水是很混浊的，所以要淘到水清了为止。
不过，既然米饭是主食，也就意味着每天的做法都是一样的。把米扔进电饭锅里，煮熟了为止。难得变变花样，也就是粥，菜饭，蛋炒饭。。。很多时候吃泡饭，把剩下的饭加水再煮一番。
前几天去商店，看见有卖印度香米，西班牙海鲜饭的米，和意大利烩饭的米，一袋袋地排在那里。我心血来潮，每样买了两袋。我书架上有各式菜谱，却都是精神食粮。这次，要将精神变为物质。
第一天做了西班牙的海鲜饭。用橄榄油吵了番茄，加了佐料。我没有藏红花，就用姜黄粉和辣椒粉，再把米炒了。又加了虾和鱿鱼，再加水煮，一锅饭就好了。五颜六色，非常鲜艳。
再接着如法炮制，大同小异，只是不同的米，不等量的水，加了咖喱和孜然，就做成了印度香饭。
加了奶酪和橄榄，就成了意大利粥。
我还做上了瘾，下次要做新奥尔良的海鲜大锅饭，嘿嘿。
孤独的邻居
我康州宿舍隔壁是个独身老太太。大概有50多岁的样子，矮矮胖胖。每周一，二在附近的沃尔玛工作，其他时间就在屋里呆着。她没车，上班是搭朋友的车。美国这地方地大物博，人口稀少，即使在全美最富裕的康州，没有车也就是没有腿，那里也去不了。
她敲过几次我的门，央求我带她去shopping，可当时我都有事，去不了。后来她就不敲门了，也不提这事了。我因为很害怕被没车的人缠上，也就不闻不问了。我以前有过几次槽糕的经验，帮助人，尤其是没车，不开车的女人，结果就被她们当成了依靠，凡是想出门就来找我。。。我连自己的自由都没有。所以这次我很当心，不想给她一种幻想。
但是，我心里却时时对她其悱恻之心。她出生在附近，从没有出过这一带，连最近的波士顿都没去过。我不知道她靠什么生活，每周在沃尔玛打两天的工大概连房租也付不起。这里是个高档的住宅区，房租极贵。
夏天的周末，她会去游泳池边上的躺椅坐一坐，很短很粗的白头发，很矮很胖的身材。大概没有男人爱过她，没有亲人，没有正式的工作，没有车子。。。
昨天，这里举行一年一度的池边烧烤，这是地产公司在社区的一大活动。我本来对这些活动毫无兴趣，只是，最近，因为工作特别紧张，天气又十分炎热，我周末没有回芝加哥。 懒得做饭，也不知道想吃什么，我决定去Party找点东西混口午饭。
游泳池边笑语喧哗，孩子们都泡在水里，大人们坐在阳伞下，喝着冷饮，吃着烤肉。我夹了一个汉堡，找了个座位。。。一眼看到她，和一个小伙子搂在一起跳舞。我一下子高兴起来，因为我希望她的生活有些色彩，有些生气，不管是友情还是罗曼司。。。我在边上为她鼓掌。。。可是，音乐一停，小伙子就走了。。。原来这个小伙子是地产公司雇来的，工作就是和单身的老客户说话跳舞，她在这里住了20年了。
我突然非常悲哀。人生是一次孤独的行旅，有去无回。我们能做到的，就是在途中彼此安慰取暖。
我这个周末一定要开车带她出去shopping。
她敲过几次我的门，央求我带她去shopping，可当时我都有事，去不了。后来她就不敲门了，也不提这事了。我因为很害怕被没车的人缠上，也就不闻不问了。我以前有过几次槽糕的经验，帮助人，尤其是没车，不开车的女人，结果就被她们当成了依靠，凡是想出门就来找我。。。我连自己的自由都没有。所以这次我很当心，不想给她一种幻想。
但是，我心里却时时对她其悱恻之心。她出生在附近，从没有出过这一带，连最近的波士顿都没去过。我不知道她靠什么生活，每周在沃尔玛打两天的工大概连房租也付不起。这里是个高档的住宅区，房租极贵。
夏天的周末，她会去游泳池边上的躺椅坐一坐，很短很粗的白头发，很矮很胖的身材。大概没有男人爱过她，没有亲人，没有正式的工作，没有车子。。。
昨天，这里举行一年一度的池边烧烤，这是地产公司在社区的一大活动。我本来对这些活动毫无兴趣，只是，最近，因为工作特别紧张，天气又十分炎热，我周末没有回芝加哥。 懒得做饭，也不知道想吃什么，我决定去Party找点东西混口午饭。
游泳池边笑语喧哗，孩子们都泡在水里，大人们坐在阳伞下，喝着冷饮，吃着烤肉。我夹了一个汉堡，找了个座位。。。一眼看到她，和一个小伙子搂在一起跳舞。我一下子高兴起来，因为我希望她的生活有些色彩，有些生气，不管是友情还是罗曼司。。。我在边上为她鼓掌。。。可是，音乐一停，小伙子就走了。。。原来这个小伙子是地产公司雇来的，工作就是和单身的老客户说话跳舞，她在这里住了20年了。
我突然非常悲哀。人生是一次孤独的行旅，有去无回。我们能做到的，就是在途中彼此安慰取暖。
我这个周末一定要开车带她出去shopping。
顽固不化的虫子
这几天，专注地研究那个顽固不化的虫子，使出了浑身之解数，还是没办法。是不同软件之间的兼容性。现代科技过于复杂，开源软件无法兼顾方方面面。
现代的软件工程师面临的工作非常挑战，每天都面临的新东西。当年我做Mianframe时工作非常容易，现在则不然。
每天真是很累，下了班倒在床上，连做饭的力气都没有。
现代的软件工程师面临的工作非常挑战，每天都面临的新东西。当年我做Mianframe时工作非常容易，现在则不然。
每天真是很累，下了班倒在床上，连做饭的力气都没有。
Thursday, August 11, 2011
美国的下届总统们如是说
Tim Pawlenty：
On Federal Funding to States:“The federal government is basically a drug dealer trying to give out free samples or give people a taste, get them further addicted.”
On Climate Change:“The weight of the evidence is that most of it, maybe all of it, is because of natural causes.”
On the Debt Ceiling:“I’m opposed to raising the debt limit.”
Mitt Romney：
On Corporations:"Corporations are people, my friend."
Herman Cain：
On the Debt Ceiling:“I don’t believe the debt ceiling has to be raised. Those are scare tactics. Those are simply exaggerated scare tactics.”
Newt Gingrich：
On Voting Rights:"Candidly, it wouldn’t be bad to have an American history test for young Americans before they start voting."
Michele Bachmann：
On Wages:"Literally, if we took away the minimum wage... we could potentially virtually wipe out unemployment completely because we would be able to offer jobs at whatever level."
On Medicare & Social Security:“What you have to do is keep faith with the people that are already in the system… But basically what we have to do is wean everybody else off.”
On Climate Change:"There isn’t even one study that can be produced that shows carbon dioxide is a harmful gas."
On Federal Funding to States:“The federal government is basically a drug dealer trying to give out free samples or give people a taste, get them further addicted.”
On Climate Change:“The weight of the evidence is that most of it, maybe all of it, is because of natural causes.”
On the Debt Ceiling:“I’m opposed to raising the debt limit.”
Mitt Romney：
On Corporations:"Corporations are people, my friend."
Herman Cain：
On the Debt Ceiling:“I don’t believe the debt ceiling has to be raised. Those are scare tactics. Those are simply exaggerated scare tactics.”
Newt Gingrich：
On Voting Rights:"Candidly, it wouldn’t be bad to have an American history test for young Americans before they start voting."
Michele Bachmann：
On Wages:"Literally, if we took away the minimum wage... we could potentially virtually wipe out unemployment completely because we would be able to offer jobs at whatever level."
On Medicare & Social Security:“What you have to do is keep faith with the people that are already in the system… But basically what we have to do is wean everybody else off.”
On Climate Change:"There isn’t even one study that can be produced that shows carbon dioxide is a harmful gas."
Monday, August 8, 2011
吉檀迦利
12
我旅行的时间很长，旅途也是很长的。
天刚破晓，我就驱车起行，穿遍广漠的世界，在许多星球之上，留下辙痕。
离你最近的地方，路途最远，最简单的音调，需要最艰苦的练习。
旅客要在每个生人门口敲叩，才能敲到自己的家门，人要在外面到处漂流，最后才能走到最深的内殿。
我的眼睛向空阔处四望，最后才合上眼说：“你原来在这里！”
这句问话和呼唤“呵，在哪儿呢？”融化在千股的泪泉里，和你保证的回答“我在这里！”的洪流，一同泛滥了全世界。
14
我的欲望很多，我的哭泣也很可怜，但你永远用坚决的拒绝来拯救我，这刚强的慈悲已经紧密地交织在我的生命里。
你使我一天一天地更配领受你自动的简单伟大的赐予——这天空和光明，这躯体和生命与心灵——把我从极欲的危险中拯救了出来。
有时候我懈怠地捱延，有时候我急忙警觉寻找我的路向；
但是你却忍心地躲藏起来。
你不断地拒绝我，从软弱动摇的欲望的危险中拯救了我，使我一天一天地更配得你完全的接纳。
21
我必须撑出我的船去。时光都在岸边捱延消磨了——不堪的我呵！
春天把花开过就告别了。如今落红遍地，我却等待而又留连。
潮声渐喧，河岸的荫滩上黄叶飘落。
你凝望着的是何等的空虚！你不觉得有一阵惊喜和对岸遥远的歌声从天空中一同飘来吗？
37
我以为我的精力已竭，旅程已终——前路已绝，储粮已尽，退隐在静默鸿蒙中的时间已经到来。
但是我发现你的意志在我身上不知有终点。旧的言语刚在舌尖上死去，新的音乐又从心上迸来；旧辙方迷，新的田野又在面前奇妙地展开。
我旅行的时间很长，旅途也是很长的。
天刚破晓，我就驱车起行，穿遍广漠的世界，在许多星球之上，留下辙痕。
离你最近的地方，路途最远，最简单的音调，需要最艰苦的练习。
旅客要在每个生人门口敲叩，才能敲到自己的家门，人要在外面到处漂流，最后才能走到最深的内殿。
我的眼睛向空阔处四望，最后才合上眼说：“你原来在这里！”
这句问话和呼唤“呵，在哪儿呢？”融化在千股的泪泉里，和你保证的回答“我在这里！”的洪流，一同泛滥了全世界。
14
我的欲望很多，我的哭泣也很可怜，但你永远用坚决的拒绝来拯救我，这刚强的慈悲已经紧密地交织在我的生命里。
你使我一天一天地更配领受你自动的简单伟大的赐予——这天空和光明，这躯体和生命与心灵——把我从极欲的危险中拯救了出来。
有时候我懈怠地捱延，有时候我急忙警觉寻找我的路向；
但是你却忍心地躲藏起来。
你不断地拒绝我，从软弱动摇的欲望的危险中拯救了我，使我一天一天地更配得你完全的接纳。
21
我必须撑出我的船去。时光都在岸边捱延消磨了——不堪的我呵！
春天把花开过就告别了。如今落红遍地，我却等待而又留连。
潮声渐喧，河岸的荫滩上黄叶飘落。
你凝望着的是何等的空虚！你不觉得有一阵惊喜和对岸遥远的歌声从天空中一同飘来吗？
37
我以为我的精力已竭，旅程已终——前路已绝，储粮已尽，退隐在静默鸿蒙中的时间已经到来。
但是我发现你的意志在我身上不知有终点。旧的言语刚在舌尖上死去，新的音乐又从心上迸来；旧辙方迷，新的田野又在面前奇妙地展开。
早晨不起床
那年，在做DSW的项目，那种痛苦仍历历在目。每天早晨，我都不想起床。
Tom当时每日要和客户周旋。我对他说：我要是你，早晨就不起床。他愣住了，大概日子虽然艰辛，却不至于不起床吧。
现在，我看奥巴马，就又有了这种念头。我真不知道他是如何对付这日子的，要是我，就根本不起床。
看Bachmann每天精神抖擞的到处胡说八道，真不知道这女人那里来的这精神头。而且，自我感觉也太好了，是不是。她能当总统？不过，我真佩服她这神采奕奕的高昂斗志，不知从哪来的。
Tom当时每日要和客户周旋。我对他说：我要是你，早晨就不起床。他愣住了，大概日子虽然艰辛，却不至于不起床吧。
现在，我看奥巴马，就又有了这种念头。我真不知道他是如何对付这日子的，要是我，就根本不起床。
看Bachmann每天精神抖擞的到处胡说八道，真不知道这女人那里来的这精神头。而且，自我感觉也太好了，是不是。她能当总统？不过，我真佩服她这神采奕奕的高昂斗志，不知从哪来的。
Saturday, August 6, 2011
老罗斯福
Mount Rushmore National Memorial，也就是总统山上，有四座高达60英尺（约合18米）的美国历史上著名的前总统头像，他们分别是华盛顿、杰斐逊、老罗斯福和林肯，这四位总统被认为代表了美国建国150年来的历史。罗斯福是拉什莫尔山上唯一的20世纪总统。学者们普遍认为他是现代美国的塑造者。历史学者评论美国总统时，他总在最出色的五位之中。
他是美国历史上最年轻的总统，42岁就成为第26届总统。1900年当选副总统。1901年总统威廉·麦金莱被无政府主义者刺杀身亡，他继任成为美国总统。
这是一个异常强悍的人。
他在总统任期内，对国内的主要贡献是建立资源保护政策，保护了森林、矿产、石油等资源；建立公平交易法案，推动劳资和解。对外奉行门罗主义，实行扩张政策，建设强大军队，干涉美洲事务。
罗斯福因成功地调停了日俄战争，获得1906年的诺贝尔和平奖，是第一个获得此奖项的美国人。在调停过程中，他敏锐地察觉新崛起的日本对美国构成的潜在威胁，认识到巴拿马运河对美国不仅具有经济价值，而且能够使美国海军舰队在太平洋和大西洋之间的调动更加快捷，具有重要的军事战略意义。因此，他在任内竭力推动巴拿马运河工程，并且视其为自己最伟大的成就。
1880年代，罗斯福作为历史学家成就辉煌。他的著作《1812年战争中的海战》（The Naval War of 1812）成为两代人的教科书。关于西部开发史的四卷大部头著作The Winning of the West也是其代表作，对史学史有重要影响。他为主流杂志撰稿，收入颇丰，也使他作为知识分子而闻名海内。后来，罗斯福当选为美国历史学会（American Historical Association）主席。
总统任内：
调解煤矿罢工
1902年，美国矿工联合会发动煤矿工人大罢工，威胁城市取暖燃料供应，引发了一场举国危机。罗斯福召集矿主和劳工领袖在白宫开会，达成妥协，将工作时间从每天10小时缩短到9小时，并且让工人得到10%的加薪，结束了持续163天的罢工。
公平交易
1901年，在罗斯福的第一个对国会演说中，他要求国会立法，对托拉斯的经营活动给予合理的限制。国会未采取行动，但是罗斯福却发起44个针对大企业的法律诉讼，因此人送外号“托拉斯驯兽师”。
产业规范化
20世纪初，铁路被视为强大的力量。罗斯福认为政府应加强对铁路运输和跨州贸易的监管和规范，使国会于1906年通过了《赫本法案》（Hepburn Act），授权州际贸易委员会（Interstate Commerce Commission）设置铁路运费上限，同时也禁止铁路公司为关系公司免费运输货物。当时无人预料到未来蓬勃的汽车运输业对铁路的挑战，该法案对消费者和商业企业提供了一定程度的保护。同年，他还促使国会通过《食品和药物纯净法案》（Pure Food and Drug Act）和《肉类产品监督法案》（Meat Inspection Act），对养畜和肉类加工企业进行稽查和实施强制卫生标准。国会修正了该法案，以免小型屠宰场的不合卫生标准的产品损害出口和国内市场。
环境保护
罗斯福是第一位对环境保护有长远考量的总统，在猎人和渔民阶层获得了广泛支持。1904年3月14日，他在佛罗里达设立了第一个国家鸟类保护区，也是野生动物庇护系统的雏形。1905年，他敦促国会成立美国林业服务局，管理国有森林和土地。罗斯福设立的国家公园和自然保护区面积比其所有前任所设总和还多，共1亿9千4百万英亩，举世闻名的大峡谷国家公园就是其中之一。他常给《户外生活》（Outdoor life）杂志撰稿，昭示自然保护理念和报告国家公园进展。他在一篇文章中写道：“我们的发展与永久性财富的资源保护有密切的关系。”他并非极端环保主义者，认为自然资源应有效地使用，避免浪费。1906年，罗斯福在白宫召集全国州长会议，讨论对于水、森林和其他自然资源的有效规划、分析和使用问题。
1905年日俄战争开始，日本陆海军以弱胜强。虽然罗斯福对沙俄在远东的野心感到不安，对日军的战斗力极为欣赏，但是他也不愿意让日本在远东独大。罗斯福召集两国代表在新罕布什尔州普兹茅斯港进行和谈。他对调停人的角色非常着迷，连哄带吓，最终使两国签署了《朴次茅斯和约》。罗斯福因此赢得巨大的国际声誉，并且获得1906年度诺贝尔和平奖。后来，他又仲裁了德国与法国在摩洛哥的势力划分。一些历史学家认为，罗斯福的这两个行动从某种程度上避免了世界大战。
1880年，罗斯福与银行家的女儿爱丽丝·海瑟薇·李（Alice Hathaway Lee）结婚。4年后，爱丽丝生下一个女婴，但不幸于产后两天去世；同日，罗斯福的母亲也去世了。从此他不再提起第一个妻子。他将女儿委托给大姐抚养，自己跑到达科他过起了放牧生活。在北达科他的牧场，罗斯福学会了骑马等牛仔技能。闲暇时他参加拳击赛。有一段时间，他担任了代理警长，追捕盗窃犯。1886到1887严寒的冬季灭绝了牧场的牲口，于是他被迫返回东部。
She was beautiful in face and form, and lovelier still in spirit; As a flower she grew, and as a fair young flower she died. Her life had been always in the sunshine; there had never come to her a single sorrow; and none ever knew her who did not love and revere her for the bright, sunny temper and her saintly unselfishness. Fair, pure, and joyous as a maiden; loving , tender, and happy. As a young wife; when she had just become a mother, when her life seemed to be just begun, and when the years seemed so bright before her—then, by a strange and terrible fate, death came to her. And when my heart’s dearest died, the light went from my life forever.
Richard Nixon made reference to these comments upon his resignation for the presidency in 1974. Paying tribute to Roosevelt and his inner courage, he remarked that "only when you have been in the deepest valley can you know how magnificent it is to reach the highest mountain".
The Roosevelts had one daughter:
罗斯福的女儿爱丽丝·罗斯福·隆沃思（Alice Roosevelt Longworth）是一位个性鲜明、颇受非议的人物。朋友们有时劝他管束自己的女儿，他却说：“我可以当美国总统，也可以管好爱丽丝，但实在无法同时做两件事。”有其父必有其女，爱丽丝刻薄地形容她老爹爱出风头，“恨不得在每一场婚礼上作新郎，每一场葬礼上作尸首”。
Alice Roosevelt Longworth (1884–1980). According to a number of historians, Roosevelt's need to leave behind or suppress his experiences with his first wife were a source of deep resentment by his daughter. She was unable to get him to talk about her mother in any meaningful way. Her rebellious life finds some explanation in this sad aspect of her relationship with her father.
In the immediate aftermath of his wife's death, Theodore turned the care of their newly-born infant daughter to his elder sister Anna, also known as Bamie, and embarked on a journey of personal discovery to his ranch in the Badlands of North Dakota. From this interlude Roosevelt would emerge a renewed man and would go on to the Presidency of the United States in 1901.
美国梦
国英给我打电话聊天。我们谈谈朋友之间的事：
比如，林从去年底被layoff后，至今还没找到工作。 老大今年大学毕业，找到工作了。老二今年上大学，还上西北，借钱，老三还小，太太从来不上班。据说当时结婚时就说了，结了婚我就不上班，行不行？
Eric也失业了，太太刚生了老三，从不上班。老大7岁，老二四岁。。。
这些男人都是最好的男人，有一技之长，辛苦养家，周末去教会，是长老，在公司都是小主管。。。
可是人生就是这样脆弱。 我们生在一个朝不保夕的国家，一个只有金钱才是万能的社会。上帝真的能给你信心吗？
女人啊，不要依赖男人了。这个社会没有这样的奢华。
人生的意义？
比如，林从去年底被layoff后，至今还没找到工作。 老大今年大学毕业，找到工作了。老二今年上大学，还上西北，借钱，老三还小，太太从来不上班。据说当时结婚时就说了，结了婚我就不上班，行不行？
Eric也失业了，太太刚生了老三，从不上班。老大7岁，老二四岁。。。
这些男人都是最好的男人，有一技之长，辛苦养家，周末去教会，是长老，在公司都是小主管。。。
可是人生就是这样脆弱。 我们生在一个朝不保夕的国家，一个只有金钱才是万能的社会。上帝真的能给你信心吗？
女人啊，不要依赖男人了。这个社会没有这样的奢华。
人生的意义？
The Jungle
我想，芝加哥现在的确是我的家乡了。
如同当年我对北京胡同，风俗有着无法抑制的热情一样，我现在对芝加哥的历史和政治也异常关注。芝加哥在我的心里不是摩天大厦，不是密执根湖，而是我住了10几年的海德园。
Upton Beall Sinclair Jr. (September 20, 1878 – November 25, 1968), was an American author who wrote close to 100 books in many genres. He achieved popularity in the first half of the 20th century, acquiring particular fame for his 1906 muckraking novel The Jungle. It exposed conditions in the U.S. meat packing industry, causing a public uproar that contributed in part to the passage a few months later of the 1906 Pure Food and Drug Act and the Meat Inspection Act. Time magazine called him "a man with every gift except humor and silence.“
芝加哥是当年的屠宰业中心。挨着海德园就Back of the Yards：
Back of the Yards is an industrial and residential neighborhood so named because it was near the former Union Stock Yards. Life in this neighborhood, which was famously organized by Saul Alinsky in the 1930s, is profiled in Upton Sinclair's 1906 novel The Jungle. The area was formerly the town of Lake until it was annexed by Chicago in 1889. The area was once an Eastern European, predominantly Polish, neighborhood.
The Jungle is a 1906 novel written by muckraking journalist Upton Sinclair. Sinclair wrote the novel to portray the life of the immigrant in the United States, but readers were more concerned with the large portion pertaining to the corruption of the American meatpacking industry during the early-20th century, and the book is now often interpreted and taught as only an exposure of the industry of meatpacking. This was not Sinclair's intention for the book though and not what he would have liked it to be famous for. The novel depicts in harsh tones poverty, absence of social programs, unpleasant living and working conditions, and hopelessness prevalent among the working class, which is contrasted with the deeply-rooted corruption on the part of those in power. Sinclair's observations of the state of turn-of-the-century labor were placed front and center for the American public to see, suggesting that something needed to be changed to get rid of American wage slavery.
Thursday, August 4, 2011
交叉的轨迹
我相信命运。当然，不是宿命。人的命运是由人的性格决定的。
我最感兴趣的是人的命运的交叉轨迹。
1968年，希拉里还在Wellesley College时，认识了一个叫Saul Alinsky的人。
Saul David Alinsky (January 30, 1909 – June 12, 1972) was an American community organizer and writer. He is generally considered to be the founder of modern community organizing, and has been compared in Playboy magazine to Thomas Paine as being "one of the great American leaders of the nonsocialist left."[1] He is often noted for his book Rules for Radicals.
这是一个有意思的人。芝加哥出生的俄国犹太移民后裔，在芝大念考古学。后来就开始做社会工作，主要是帮助贫民区的人提高生活质量。后来，他把注意力放在帮助黑人贫民窟上。
但是，他又是一个非常独立的人，不参与任何党派，团体。他说：
Not at any time. I've never joined any organization—not even the ones I've organized myself. I prize my own independence too much. And philosophically, I could never accept any rigid dogma or ideology, whether it's Christianity or Marxism. One of the most important things in life is what Judge Learned Hand described as 'that ever-gnawing inner doubt as to whether you're right.' If you don't have that, if you think you've got an inside track to absolute truth, you become doctrinaire, humorless and intellectually constipated. The greatest crimes in history have been perpetrated by such religious and political and racial fanatics, from the persecutions of the Inquisition on down to Communist purges and Nazi genocide.
希拉里大学最后一年，开始对他感兴趣。本来想大学毕业后为他工作，可是，最终决定去耶鲁念法学院。
16年后，奥巴马大学毕业后，从纽约来到芝加哥，成为一个芝加哥南部的community organizer，这恰恰是当年希拉里想做却又没做的工作。
再后来的事，就不用说了。
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
奥巴马最窝囊的一天
今天，大概是奥巴马最窝囊的一天了。很多左翼对他很失望，认为他对共和党屈膝。其实，他是有软肋的，他的后脚踵就是Job。 当共和党要filibuster他的刺激经济的议案时，他用延缓增税来换取，而他内心也惧怕过高的赤字会降低美国的信用。有人说，他不敢像Bill Clinton 一样用14th amendment option， 那是因为最终是民主党送提案（参议院还是民主党的），而不是克林顿时代是共和党的议院，他不能砍杀自己党的议案吧！奥巴马太rational，做不来crazy的事情。不过，像他这种性格，肯定是政治斗争的牺牲品。
Monday, August 1, 2011
奥巴马到底怎么了？
我现在有点糊涂了。他是可怜，共和党和茶党借此机会，狠敲竹杠。他身为总统，不得不牺牲民主党的利益和连任的前景，总不能让老百姓吃亏吧。
可是，他也过于软弱了。而且，他是不是 too nice, too smart, too realistic? 这些共和党简直是在欺负他。
You Are Not One Of Them
这几天，国会国债上限争论的闹剧终于接近收场了。
其实，这次我倒是没有不同意共和党的建议。赤字这么高，必须要解决，也必须立即解决。总不能靠借钱过日子。我对里根的消费经济从来就不相信，也不是基于什么理论，而是常识。国家的经济和家里的应该差不多吧。
美国的经济也根本不会在短时间内有太大好转。以前，是帝国主义，美国的致富是在掠夺其他国家的资源的基础上的。现在，说的难听点，连本国的中产阶级也被华尔街和华盛顿掠夺了。美国的基础经济已经被送到海外了，新兴的生产力又一时半会建立不起来。奥巴马的刺激经济政策是杯水车薪，根本堵不了这个窟窿，反而欠了一屁股债。不让花钱就不花吧，花了也白花，也许美国人就该走下坡路，就该过苦日子。奥巴马以为能阻止一辆巨大的战车往下滑，倒是螳臂挡车呢。
奥巴马竞选时，对手攻击他不是大家中的一个。我现在越来越同意这个结论了。这次的谈判，他一退再退，连底线都守不住。很多时候我看着他都心疼。他太nice，太worry，太想为老百姓做事了。这样的人太格格不入，进不了华盛顿的圈子，搞不了政治。有评论说，他不能和国会的领袖建立亲近的私人关系，无法驾驭国会。共和党这次是绑架他，欺负他，狠狠地敲了一笔竹杠。他身为总统，不得不牺牲民主党的利益和连任的前景，总不能让国家default。
他从哈佛毕业后，在纽约工作了一年。他的第一个老板说，他一直认为奥巴马会成为一个作家，他的身上有一种挥之不去的sense of loneness。 这是他最打动我的地方，我经常能从他的眼睛里看到这种了loneness，尤其是最近。
说实话，我蛮喜欢John Boehner。俄亥俄算是我美国的重生之地，John Boehner是那里的议员，其实他出身非常贫苦，家里很多兄弟，大多数都是蓝领。可以理解为什么他是共和党。这是一个典型的美国中部人，保守，勤劳，相信美国梦。只是，这个梦已经破碎。
可是，他也过于软弱了。而且，他是不是 too nice, too smart, too realistic? 这些共和党简直是在欺负他。
You Are Not One Of Them
这几天，国会国债上限争论的闹剧终于接近收场了。
其实，这次我倒是没有不同意共和党的建议。赤字这么高，必须要解决，也必须立即解决。总不能靠借钱过日子。我对里根的消费经济从来就不相信，也不是基于什么理论，而是常识。国家的经济和家里的应该差不多吧。
美国的经济也根本不会在短时间内有太大好转。以前，是帝国主义，美国的致富是在掠夺其他国家的资源的基础上的。现在，说的难听点，连本国的中产阶级也被华尔街和华盛顿掠夺了。美国的基础经济已经被送到海外了，新兴的生产力又一时半会建立不起来。奥巴马的刺激经济政策是杯水车薪，根本堵不了这个窟窿，反而欠了一屁股债。不让花钱就不花吧，花了也白花，也许美国人就该走下坡路，就该过苦日子。奥巴马以为能阻止一辆巨大的战车往下滑，倒是螳臂挡车呢。
奥巴马竞选时，对手攻击他不是大家中的一个。我现在越来越同意这个结论了。这次的谈判，他一退再退，连底线都守不住。很多时候我看着他都心疼。他太nice，太worry，太想为老百姓做事了。这样的人太格格不入，进不了华盛顿的圈子，搞不了政治。有评论说，他不能和国会的领袖建立亲近的私人关系，无法驾驭国会。共和党这次是绑架他，欺负他，狠狠地敲了一笔竹杠。他身为总统，不得不牺牲民主党的利益和连任的前景，总不能让国家default。
他从哈佛毕业后，在纽约工作了一年。他的第一个老板说，他一直认为奥巴马会成为一个作家，他的身上有一种挥之不去的sense of loneness。 这是他最打动我的地方，我经常能从他的眼睛里看到这种了loneness，尤其是最近。
说实话，我蛮喜欢John Boehner。俄亥俄算是我美国的重生之地，John Boehner是那里的议员，其实他出身非常贫苦，家里很多兄弟，大多数都是蓝领。可以理解为什么他是共和党。这是一个典型的美国中部人，保守，勤劳，相信美国梦。只是，这个梦已经破碎。
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