Friday, August 19, 2011

gulee教导(3)

I have a simple suggestion to you, but whether you have the discipline to do it or not is totally up to you. Here's what you should do:

Next time you watch the charts, find an entry (for example you see a trade on Daily chart around 11 AM) and feel the urge to get in, DO NOT! Resist the urge and leave the computer or shut it down and walk out, go fishing, give your wife a foot massage, or whatever. After one or two hours or any time before market closes, turn your computer on and check the charts, if you saw your trade earlier on a Daily chart, now I want you to look at 20 minutes charts, if you see a pull back AFTER the time you saw your trade (around 11 AM), then you wait, as soon as it turns around or may have already turned around to go your way as your originally entry (price should have broken the trend line you draw on the pull back on 20 min chart), you get in right there. You wait for the next day to get in if price never broke trend line of the pull back on 20 min chart before close today.

After you get in, you only need to check your stock 5-10 minutes before market closes each day (not earlier, not at the open). You must resist the urge to watch market or your stock every hour or during the day. You leave it alone as long as price is above your entry price, or you MUST have the discipline to exit if price fell below your entry price before market closes (not during the day).

If you can do this, particularly if you wait to do a trade only when it aligns with the general market direction (long when general market like DOW, NASDAQ, SP are up; short when market is down), you will win a lot more often than you lose. If your stock is just leaving Bollinger Band as you enter on Daily chart or your trade direction is also with Weekly chart direction and sector/industry direction, you will almost be certain to make money on this trade. If you do this in Nov-Mar and resist the urge to take profit by sitting tight for days and weeks, your proift will higher than you expect.

Before you trade real money, you probably need to paper trade it for a while.

To illustrate my points here's a real example on OII down trade/shorting/puts at 1 PM on 8/18. (I am not recommending this stock, just for illustration purpose)

Weekly chart: price testing 20 MA resistance and 50 MA support but failing now;
Daily chart: gap down and indicate a down trade;
So you move to 21 min. chart: it gapped down at open and pulled back (up) to its 200 MA resistance around $37.3, then around 1 PM price reversed down again to $37 which broke the trendline on the up pull back, you get in right here at round $37!

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